East vs West…again
One of the questions that has recently been on my mind, with the fresh involvement of the USA in Ukrainian/Russian geopolitical situations going on right now, was this: will the Russians retain a buffer zone in the EU that is at least neutral or will the West penetrate so far into Ukraine that they are 700 kilometres away from Moscow?
For Russia, the status of Ukraine is an existential threat. The Russians cannot let go, for the US, in the event that Russia holds onto Ukraine where will it stop? Therefore, it is not an accident that the American generals are talking about prepositioning troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and the Baltics. This is the “Intermarium” that Józef Piłsudski dreamt of; this is the “solution” for the US.
The issue to which the US does not have the answer, is “what will Germany do?” That is the real wild card in Europe, as the US builds its cordon sanitaire, not in Ukraine, but to the west when the Russians try to figure out how to leverage the Ukrainians out.
The US, at this moment, does NOT know the German position. Germany is in a very peculiar position, as its former chancellor, Gerhard Schröder is on the board of Gazprom. The Germans have a very complex relationship with the Russians. The Germans themselves don’t even know what to do. They must export, but the Russians cannot take up the exports; on the other hand, if they lose the Free Trade Zone, they need to build something different to make up for this.
For the United States, the primordial fear is German capital and German technology combined with Russian natural resources and manpower, as this is the only combination that has for centuries scared the hell out of the United States. As far as how this will play out, the US has already “put its cards on the table”…it is the line from the Baltics to the Black Sea.
For the Russians, their cards have always been on the table. They must have at least a neutral Ukraine, not a pro-Western Ukraine. Belarus is another question to be addressed at a later time and date. Whomever can correctly predict what the Germans will do, will be correctly predicting the next 20 years of history.
Unfortunately, Germany still hasn’t made up their minds, as has always been the problem of the Germans throughout history – they are enormously economically powerful, geopolitically very fragile, and never quite knowing how to reconcile the two.
Ever since 1871, this has been the German question. The question of Europe. Until Germany knows what their future plan of action is towards the current Russian/Eastern European situation, nobody can accurately predict the direction current hostilities will take.